Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing meeting is another twist in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a history of siding with Israel since his first term, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a resolution.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called the US president who then promoted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine later made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the war is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.